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PROLOGUE
ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS
A NEW KIND OF INGRATITUDE
LIFE IS VERY UNUSUAL
PLATO AND THE NERD
TOO DULL TO WRITE ABOUT
THE BOTTOM LINE
Part 1: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter One: THE APPRENTICESHIP OF AN EMPIRICAL SKEPTIC
Chapter Two: YEVGENIA’S BLACK SWAN
Chapter Three: THE SPECULATOR AND THE PROSTITUTE
Chapter Four: ONE THOUSAND AND ONE DAYS, OR HOW NOT TO BE A SUCKER
Chapter Five: CONFIRMATION SHMONFIRMATION!
Chapter Six: THE NARRATIVE FALLACY
Chapter Seven: LIVING IN THE ANTECHAMBER OF HOPE
Chapter Eight: GIACOMO CASANOVA’S UNFAILING LUCK: THE PROBLEM OF SILENT EVIDENCE
Chapter Nine: THE LUDIC FALLACY, OR THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NERD
Part 2: WE JUST CAN’T PREDICT
Chapter Ten: THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION
Chapter Eleven: HOW TO LOOK FOR BIRD POOP
Chapter Twelve: EPISTEMOCRACY, A DREAM
Chapter Thirteen: APPELLES THE PAINTER, OR WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU CANNOT PREDICT?[41]
Part 3: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
Chapter Fourteen: FROM MEDIOCRISTAN TO EXTREMISTAN, AND BACK
Chapter Fifteen: THE BELL CURVE, THAT GREAT INTELLECTUAL FRAUD[49]
Chapter Sixteen: THE AESTHETICS OF RANDOMNESS
Chapter Seventeen: LOCKE’S MADMEN, OR BELL CURVES IN THE WRONG PLACES[59]
Chapter Eighteen: THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PHONY
Part 4: THE END
Chapter Nineteen: HALF AND HALF, OR HOW TO GET EVEN WITH THE BLACK SWAN
EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
GLOSSARY
NOTES
BEHIND THE CURTAIN: ADDITIONAL NOTES, TECHNICAL COMMENTS, REFERENCES, AND READING RECOMMENDATIONS
PROLOGUE and CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTERS 5-7
CHAPTER 8
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 10
CHAPTERS 11-13
CHAPTERS 14-17
FRACTALS, POWER LAWS, and SCALE-FREE DISTRIBUTIONS
CHAPTER 18
CHAPTER 19
BIBLIOGRAPHY
