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Praise for INNUMERACY
Introduction
1 Examples and Principles
BIG NUMBERS, SMALL PROBABILITIES
BLOOD, MOUNTAINS, AND BURGERS
GARGANTUAN NUMBERS AND THE FORBES 400
ARCHIMEDES AND PRACTICALLY INFINITE NUMBERS
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE AND MOZART'S WALTZES
JULIUS CAESAR AND YOU
2 Probability and Coincidence
SOME BIRTHDAY VS. A PARTICULAR BIRTHDAY
CHANCE ENCOUNTERS
A STOCK-MARKET SCAM
EXPECTED VALUES: FROM BLOOD TESTING TO CHUCK-A-LUCK
CHOOSING A SPOUSE
COINCIDENCE AND THE LAW
FAIR COINS AND LIFE'S WINNERS AND LOSERS
THE HOT HAND AND THE CLUTCH HITTER
3 Pseudoscience
INNUMERACY, FREUD, AND PSEUDOSCIENCE
PARAPSYCHOLOGY
PREDICTIVE DREAMS
LI'L OL' ME AND THE STARS
EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE, YES;
VISITORS IN UFO, NO
FRAUDULENT MEDICAL TREATMENTS
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY, BLACKJACK, AND DRUG TESTING
NUMEROLOGY
LOGIC AND PSEUDOSCIENCE
4 Whence Innumeracy?
REMEMBRANCE OF INNUMERACIES PAST
SECONDARY, COLLEGE, AND GRADUATE EDUCATION
INNUMERACY AND THE TENDENCY TO PERSONALIZE
THE UBIQUITY OF FILTERING AND COINCIDENCE
DECISIONS AND FRAMING QUESTIONS
MATH ANXIETY
ROMANTIC MISCONCEPTIONS
DIGRESSION: A LOGARITHMIC SAFETY INDEX
5 Statistics, Trade-Offs, and Society
PRIORITIES-INDIVIDUAL VS. SOCIETAL
LAISSEZ-FAIRE: ADAM SMITH OR THOMAS HOBBES
BIRTHDAYS, DEATH DAYS, AND ESP
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS:
FROM POLITICS TO PASCAL'S WAGER
POLLING WITH CONFIDENCE
OBTAINING PERSONAL INFORMATION
TWO THEORETICAL RESULTS
CORRELATION AND CAUSATION
BREAST CANCER, MUGGINGS, AND WAGES:
SIMPLE STATISTICAL MISTAKES
ODDS AND ADDENDA
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
